The U.S. halted strikes against Iran which had been going on for almost two weeks, and Tehran signaled it wouldn’t stage attacks while the U.S. pause holds. Meanwhile, oil prices slid as the stop in fighting reduced risk to the energy markets and global inflationary pressures. Since the Iran war began in late February, gold prices have risen on signs the conflict is waning or pausing and rallied on signals that it’s worsening.
Investors are awaiting two key pieces of economic news this week. The first is Wednesday’s announcement by the Fed, at which the central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, though shed some light on its outlook for the rest of the year. It will be followed by key inflation data for June.
Front-month gold futures rallied 2.8% last week to settle at $4,129.70 an ounce on Comex after the front-month contract rolled to December from August. The December contract gained 0.5% Friday. Bullion is up 2.3% in July after sliding 12% in June and dropping 0.8% in May. It decreased 7% in the first half of 2026 after rallying 64% last year. The December contract is currently up $8.70 (+0.21%) an ounce to $4138.40 and the spot price is $4088.50.
Before recent declines, oil prices had surged above $100 a barrel amid a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for the oil industry. This has added to inflationary pressure and increased speculation of a Fed rate hike to get inflation under control. Higher interest rates are typically bearish for gold, making it a less attractive alternate investment.
While 80% of investors tracked by the CME FedWatch Tool expect an interest rate increase in September, an increasing number in the past week tracked by the Tool have bet on a rate hike at the Fed’s next scheduled monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. The Fed has kept interest rates unchanged this year after three previous rate cuts. The Fed last month held interest rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% but signaled growing support for a rate hike in 2026.
The Fed’s favorite inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, comes the day after the Fed’s announcement.
Front-month silver futures rose 4.6% last week to settle at $58.91 an ounce on Comex, after the September contract increased 1.5% Friday. The most-active contract touched a record above $115 in January. Silver is down 1.7% in July after declining 21% in June and gaining 2.5% in May. It lost 15% in the first half of 2026 after rising 141% last year. The September contract is currently up $0.119 (+0.20%) an ounce to $59.025 and the spot price is $58.94.
Spot palladium fell 0.3% last week to $1,257.70 an ounce after losing 0.6% Friday. Palladium is up 3.2% this month after dropping 11% in June and losing 12% in May. It retreated 25% in the first half of 2026 after rising 74% last year. Currently, the DG spot price was up $38.90 an ounce to $1292.50.
Spot platinum declined 0.7% last week to $1,600.30 an ounce after slipping 0.1% Friday. Platinum is up 2.7% this month after tumbling 19% in June and dropping 3.2% in May. Platinum slid 23% in the first half of 2026 after increasing 122% in 2025. The spot price is currently up $33.10 an ounce to $1630.20.
