Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi early Monday reported major progress to end the Lebanon war in talks mediated by Pakistan and Qatar. The Israeli offensive in Lebanon has been a sticking point in a permanent accord between the U.S. and Iran to end an almost four-month-old conflict that halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil artery, driving up prices of goods around the world. Oil prices fell early Monday.
August gold futures rose 0.2% last week to settle at $4,245.90 an ounce on Comex. U.S. financial markets were closed Friday for the Juneteenth federal holiday, and trading on the exchange will post for Monday’s settlement. Bullion is down 7.6% this month after dropping 0.8% in May and losing 1% in April. It rallied 64% last year. The August contract is currently down $43.1 (-1.02%) an ounce to $4202.80 and the spot price is $4192.50.
The signing of a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding last week started the clock ticking on 60 days of negotiations to come up with a final agreement.
The expectation of tighter monetary policy this year has comes as inflation climbed following the Iran war. At the start of the year, before the war, the central bank had been expected to loosen monetary policy.
The Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, comes out Thursday with May data and will provide the next key information on the state of the economy. Revised first-quarter GDP data comes out the same day. The indicators are expected to provide a better picture on how the Iran conflict affected costs of goods. Consumer sentiment data comes out Friday.
The Fed last week held interest rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, as expected, but signaled growing support for a rate hike in 2026. Higher rates are typically bearish for gold, making it a less attractive investment than other assets. But if inflation starts to slow, it would reduce pressure on the Fed to tighten monetary policy and be bullish for gold.
Most investors tracked by the CME FedWatch Tool are now betting on interest rates staying unchanged in July, though they see an increase before the end of the year. The Fed has kept interest rates unchanged this year after three previous rate cuts.
Front-month silver futures, which rolled to September from July last week, lost 1.7% for the week to settle at $66.80 an ounce on Comex. The most-active contract touched a record above $115 in January. Silver is down 12% this month after gaining 2.5% in May and losing 1.2% in April. It rose 141% last year. The September contract is currently up $0.202 (+0.30%) an ounce to $67.005 and the spot price is $66.59.
Spot palladium gained 0.5% last week to $1,293.00 an ounce. Palladium is down 5.2% this month after dropping 12% in May and rising 3.2% in April. Palladium rose 74% last year. Currently, the spot price is down $15.10 an ounce to $1273.00.
Spot platinum advanced 0.4% last week to $1,712.90 an ounce. Platinum is down 11% in June after dropping 3.2% in May and gaining 1.3% in April. Platinum increased 122% in 2025. The spot price is currently down $17.30 an ounce to $1696.00.
