The yellow metal traded around $4,500 an ounce after rallying Friday. The move comes as oil prices have continued to rise on the war’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and as equities have declined. Gold is a traditional hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainty, but it hasn’t played that role since the start of this conflict, with investors turning to assets like the dollar instead.
Investors are closely watching the conflict amid fears of an escalation that will prolong into a more pronounced regional conflict that would threaten the global economy, prompting interest rate increases by some central banks and possible sales of gold stockpiles. The continued rise of oil is adding to the fading hopes of further Fed rate cuts in 2026, putting downside pressure on gold’s rally.
June gold futures tumbled 1.9% last week to settle at $4,524.30 an ounce on Comex, though the most-active contract rose 2.6% Friday. Bullion has plummeted 14% this month after climbing 11% in February and rising 9.3% in January. It rallied 64% last year. The June contract is currently up $73.7 (+1.63%) an ounce to $4598.00 and the spot price is $4558.80.
U.S. consumer sentiment declined to a three-month low in data released Friday amid rising inflationary fears. The U.S. monthly jobs report for March, a key economic indicator, is due out Friday and will provide additional direction.
In a switch since the war began, most investors tracked by the CME FedWatch Tool expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged this year, and some are now betting on a rate hike instead of the rate cut they were previously anticipating. More than 97% of investors tracked by the tool are betting on rates staying unchanged at the next policy meeting in April, and the rest are now betting on an increase.
Fed policymakers this month kept interest rates unchanged again at 3.50% to 3.75%. The Fed has kept interest rates unchanged this year after three previous rate cuts. The central bank began raising interest rates in March 2022 to fight inflation, ultimately imposing increases of by 5.25 percentage points before beginning rate cuts in 2024.
Front-month silver futures edged up 0.2% last week to settle at $69.80 an ounce on Comex, and the May contract rallied 2.7% Friday. The most-active contract touched a record above $115 in January. Silver is down 25% this month after gaining 19% in February and advancing 11% in January. It rose 141% last year. The May contract is currently up $1.564 (+2.24%) an ounce to $71.360 and the spot price is $70.91.
Spot palladium decreased 3.4% last week to $1,399.50 an ounce but rose 2.6% Friday. Palladium is down 22% this month after gaining 8.8% in February and advancing 2.4% in January. Palladium rose 74% last year. Currently, the spot price is up $21.40 an ounce to $1437.50.
Spot platinum fell 4.9% last week to $1,881.60 an ounce but gained 1.4% Friday. It’s down 20% this month after advancing 15% in February and gaining 1.4% in January. Platinum increased 122% in 2025. The spot price is currently up $22.60 an ounce to $1918.70.
