Park Avenue Numismatics
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Gold Can Keep Glittering in 2019
Gold is finally glittering—and don’t be surprised if it continues to shine.
Gold, remember, is supposed to be a store of value, and has done a good job of keeping up with inflation over the long term. As Andrew Bary noted in our September cover story on the precious metal, an ounce of gold would have bought a good men’s suit in 1918, and still does today.
Gold can also act as a buffer in tough times. While the S&P 500 has tumbled 16% during the past three months, gold has gained 8%, acting as just the kind of hedge against market chaos that some investors hope for when they buy it.
The SPDR Gold exchange-traded fund (GLD) has gained 1%, to $120.86, on Thursday, while the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has climbed 1.5%, to $20.93.
That role as insurance from market volatility was also apparent in currency markets. In 2018, gold has outperformed every Group of 10 currency except the yen, the U.S. dollar, and the Swiss franc, observes Société Générale currency strategist Kit Juckes. “Fair to say, then, that it’s mixing it with the safer-haven crowd.” he writes.
Given the continued uncertainty in currency markets, there is a good chance that gold prices keep rallying. The dollar doesn’t look great due to a slower U.S. economy and the large fiscal deficit that its government is running. The euro, meanwhile looks cheap relative to the dollar, but the main argument for the common-currency strength is that the news out of Europe can’t get much worse. That is not a great reason.
“The reason for thinking positively about gold at the moment is that we have deteriorating dollar fundamentals and an absence of reasons to like pretty much any other currency,” Juckes writes.
