6.30.26 - 3 reasons UBS sees gold surging 30%

6.30.26 - 3 reasons UBS sees gold surging 30%

Gold last traded at $4,026 an ounce. Silver at $59.52 an ounce.

3 reasons UBS sees gold surging 30% in the next year -Business Insider

After a rough patch for gold, UBS says the precious metal is set to surge about 28% over the next 12 months.

Gold prices are down 23% since their January highs to around $4,040 an ounce, following a 150% gain from early 2024 to early 2026.

But in a June 25 note, UBS said a mix of three factors should drive a recovery in prices to about $5,200 an ounce.

First, the bank said that investors are overestimating the hawkishness of the Federal Reserve after Kevin Warsh's first meeting as the central bank's chairman. The Fed's next move is more likely to be a cut than a hike, the bank said, and when those expectations shift, it should be a boon for gold.

The Fed tends to cut interest rates when the economy needs a boost, which is also when investors might seek out safe haven assets like gold. UBS said they expect economic growth in slow over the next year.

Second, the US dollar should weaken as long positioning in the currency is "stretched," and as fiscal deficits continue to rise.

"A weaker dollar has historically been a powerful tailwind for gold," Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, the bank's global head of equities, said in the note.