How a Recession Could Hit This Year

New York Times--"The chances that the U.S. will fall into recession have increased sharply in the last two weeks. Here's how it could happen, according to Neil Irwin of The Upshot: 'The trade wars and a breakdown in international economic diplomacy cause businesses around the world to pull back. This leads to further tumbles in markets and job losses, prompting American consumers to become more cautious. High corporate debt loads create a wave of bankruptcies. And central bank policy proves impotent, combined with fiscal policy that is nonexistent.' And what would it look like on the ground? Besides the hardships for businesses and individuals, Ross Douthat of the NYT makes a few predictions in his latest column: 'President Trump could lose re-election, as he would be unlikely to muster enough votes if his boom evaporates. Venture-capital funding could start to dry up, which might make business like Uber and WeWork unsustainable. The immigration crisis could diminish, as the U.S. becomes less attractive to those in other countries, while domestic social problems like suicide rates and drug overdoses could get worse.'"