Park Avenue Numismatics
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As gold is in the midst of a solid recovery this December, a bull market is just around the corner for the precious metal, Capital Economics said in its 2019 outlook.
“The past quarter marks a turnaround for the gold price and a sign of what is to come. Accordingly, we continue to expect gold to move higher next year – albeit by a modest $50 per ounce given the recent rally,” economists at Capital Economics wrote on Thursday.
The optimistic outlook is based on investor interest returning to the gold space as the end of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle approaches.
“We are forecasting an end to Fed tightening by the middle of next year. In fact, the dramatic fall in market expectations of Fed tightening over the past six weeks has been a key factor in the recovery in gold prices,” the report said.
Capital Economics goes even further to suggest that in 2020 the Fed will start cutting rates more than the markets are pricing in at the moment, which should boost prices at the end of next year.
Another major driver for gold will be a weaker U.S. dollar in 2019, which has held back and pressured down gold prices for most of this year, the economists explained.
The yellow metal was last trading near fresh five-month highs, with the February Comex gold futures rose to $1,267.70, up 0.90% on the day.
The end-2019 target for Capital Economics is $1,300 an ounce for gold, followed by the $1,400 level at the end of 2020.
Also, demand for safe-haven assets should do well next year, with ETF holdings expected to rise back above 80 million ounces, added Capital Economics.
“We think that prices will continue to rise after 2019, underpinned by the deepening downturn in the U.S. economy in 2020 and looser U.S. monetary policy. Our forecast is for gold prices to reach $1,400 per ounce by end-2020,” the economists said.