Gold Still Positive Despite Dollar
The price of Gold and Silver is in positive territory despite a stronger U.S. Dollar and higher Treasury yields.
The Gold ETF investors seem content with holding on to their long positions, as little if any movement out of those funds has been seen in the last two weeks.
The Federal Reserve
The Fed ends its two-day meeting today with zero chance of raising rates today.
Tomorrow, the President is expected to nominate Jerome Powell a Republican with a background in the Financial Industry. Mr. Powell is viewed as a ‘Dove’ and is a supporter of the current the Chairwoman’s policies. If nominated he would be the first Fed Chair in forty years without a degree in economics.
If the President chooses John Taylor, who is considered a ‘Hawk’ with views of an aggressive Fed policy plan, I believe the Gold market will view this as a negative and sell off after the announcement.
Analyzing the Markets
The Commitments of Traders (COT) reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets with 20 or more traders holding positions equal to or above the reporting levels established by
The COT released this past Friday still shows traders holding 191,000 long Gold Future contracts. That’s only down 9,000 contracts from when Gold was trading in the $1,295 area to where we were on Monday when I started this report at $1,271. It seems many traders are content with holding on to their positions.
The threat from North Korea and the issues on our shores that are STILL with us (no bills passed on Healthcare, Tax Reform, Corporate tax cuts and infrastructure) seem to give the longs a glimmer of hope that the price of Gold still has some upside potential.
Traders holding Silver positions seem to have the same mindset. According to the most recent report they are still holding a net long position of 65,000 Future contracts.
If you look at the technical numbers I have been reporting on, it’s not until the $1,261 level in Gold and the $16.48 level in Silver where we expect the longs to start to exit the market in larger numbers and accelerate the selloff.
Even though many traders are watching these levels closely, I believe that since all the continued negative news out of Washington and the very high chance of an interest rate hike in December (according to the CME Watch Tool Indicator) is already known in the market, I’ll go out on a limb and predict that the price of Gold will recover and the Traders holding onto their long positions will be right for doing so.
Friday’s close of the CBOE VIX Volatility index (a number which shows the market’s expectation of the next 30-days of volatility ) was showing 9.80 and today the VIX Index is at 9.90 indicating that Equity investors still have no concerns that the Dow Industrials have reached their highs. And if a comprehensive tax bill could be passed there is more expected room to the upside.
Have a wonderful Wednesday.
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February 12, 2016 Mark Cuban Bullish on Gold!
When it comes to gold, traders including billionaire investor Mark Cuban are turning to the options market.
“When traders don’t know what to do, they go where everybody is, and I thought there was a good chance that would be gold,” Cuban said.
Read MoreCuban: ‘Confused’ about markets, betting on gold
December 11, 2016 spot gold price is $1,250.89.
That’s $52.28 more than yesterday. And, it’s a staggering $188.90 more than the start of 2016.
Carsten Menke, an analyst at Julius Baer, has told Reuters, “The safe-haven seekers are moving back. We recommend clients add gold to their portfolios as insurance, if things turn out really bad, there will be much more upside.”
If you’ve been waiting to protect some of your savings to gold, this may be your best last chance!
Gold up $44.30
December 1, 2014 Miami Beach, FL- Gold prices sharply higher on short covering and bargain hunting. U.S. stocks open lower on downbeat economic news from China and volatile commodity prices. Gold last traded at $1213.80 up $44.30 an ounce. Silver at $16.56 up $.88 an ounce.
Gold rebound coming in 2015: George Gero – CNBC–11.25.14
According to expert George Gero of RBC Capital Markets the bullion trade is set to turn around in 2015. Due to all of the stimulus in Japan, China and Europe, investors are going to see some major changes more….. http://www.cnbc.com/id/102217851
Precious Metals are quiet while the Volitility in the Equity Markets continues!
Park Avenue Numismatics, Miami Beach, FL – October 15, 2014 – Precious metals had a rather quiet Monday and Tuesday as the tug of war continues between U.S. equity weakness, lower bond yields, very weak German economic data, a strong USD and the collapse of energy prices led by the fall in crude oil. Gold’s sensitivity to a move in the USD was front and center overnight as all four precious metals moved sharply lower during Asian trading hours as the USD was probing higher, gold and silver traded down to $1,222.00 and $17.02.
In early U.S. trading, gold and silver have recovered and reversed as they are now positive on the day while platinum and palladium are still down on the day, but well off the Asian lows. Shockingly weak economic date from Germany, weak economic data here in the U.S., another huge sell-off in U.S equities, an enormous rally in bonds which sees the 10-year yield below 2.00 percent, another big sell-off in crude oil and another confirmed Ebola case in the U.S. are all making this a very volatile day. Perhaps this is the day where gold and silver find concerned investors in other markets looking for insurance and we finally see a big rally in our market.
Stocks slide and Gold is up on the safe-haven trade
Park Avenue Numismatics, Miami Beach, FL – September 23, 2014 – U.S. stock investors remained skittish on Tuesday, sending the main benchmarks lower as investors sought safe havens such as gold and Treasuries. Perhaps the biggest drag on the market mood was weak European data, which overshadowed better-than-expected Chinese manufacturing numbers. U.S. airstrikes in Syria on Monday evening against extremist fighters, known as the Islamic State, reminded traders of heightened geopolitical risks. Gold is currently up $6.60 to $1,222.40 an ounce and silver $0.4 to $17.87 an ounce.
Gold Prices ended higher on Monday ahead of Fed’s Policy Meeting
Park Avenue Numismatics, Miami Beach, FL – September 16, 2014 – Gold prices ended higher on Monday in front of the Fed’s policy meeting later in the week. The U.S. equity markets continued it downward trend with losses led by technology stocks. Many analyst believe that the fundamentals of the economy does not the support the markets recent record highs. Geo-political concerns continue to mount all around the world and this is also causing fear in the markets worldwide. If the market continues to weaken, Gold will then again become a safe-haven trade and has the potential to move much higher after going down over the past few weeks. Gold last traded up .60 at $1,234.30 an ounce.
Gold prices slightly higher in early session trading
Park Avenue Numismatics, Miami Beach, FL – September 3, 2014 – Gold prices are up slightly from Tuesday’s 11-week low, shaking off concerns of a strengthening dollar and an improving U.S. economy to show signs of life. Gold prices have been lower on a stronger U.S. dollar and lower oil prices. U.S. stocks ended lower on Tuesday despite data showing U.S. manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in three years. In early session trading, Gold is $1,267 and ounce and Silver is $19.25 and ounce.
Gold prices are higher due to safe-haven buying
Park Avenue Numismatics, Miami Beach, FL – August 28, 2014 – Gold prices are higher on Thursday, due to safe-haven buying, short covering and perceived bargain hunting. Geopolitics is top-of-mind with investors as a three-day U.S. holiday weekend approaches. There are reports out of Europe that the Ukrainian president said the Russian military has invaded his country and is occupying eastern Ukraine towns and villages. There is reportedly ongoing fighting between the Russian and Ukraine armies. A Russian official denied that Russian troops are in eastern Ukraine. Gold, U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar index were all supported on safe-haven demand amid this news. Meantime, world stock markets saw some selling pressure from the keener risk aversion in the market place Thursday. Some better U.S. economic data did push gold prices down from the daily highs. Gold was last up $7.10 at $1,290.80 an ounce. Silver last traded up $0.12 at $19.66 an ounce.